Data suggests that nearly all activity on a prediction market connected to FIFA is driven by traders repeatedly buying and selling among themselves, rather than by broad participation or genuine shifts in public expectations.
The findings raise questions about how much the market’s activity reflects real demand.
Circular trading can inflate transaction volumes, making a platform appear more active and influential than it is.
The pattern may also complicate efforts to interpret market prices as reliable forecasts of outcomes tied to FIFA events.
Analysts say high trading volume alone is not proof of a healthy or informative market; the identity of participants and the nature of their transactions matter.
The data adds to wider concerns about transparency and oversight in emerging prediction markets, where users wager on future events and prices are often presented as collective forecasts. FIFA and the platform involved have not been identified as endorsing the reported trading practices. Further scrutiny is likely to focus on whether the activity reflects coordinated behavior, technical market-making, or ordinary trading mechanics.