• Refinery disruptions, limited spare capacity and shifting trade flows are restricting diesel availability across major markets.
• Demand for diesel remains strong in trucking, agriculture, construction and industry, making the fuel especially sensitive to supply shocks.
• Europe faces added risks as it reduces reliance on Russian refined products and competes for cargoes from other suppliers.
• Higher diesel prices could raise transportation and operating costs, feeding into prices for food, manufactured goods and other essentials.
• The outlook may improve if new refining capacity comes online, demand weakens or trade routes stabilize, but the IEA cautions that relief is unlikely to be immediate.
The agency’s forecast underscores how vulnerable the global fuel system remains even when crude oil supplies appear adequate. Diesel markets are shaped not only by oil production, but also by refinery capacity, shipping constraints and geopolitical disruptions. For businesses and households, the prolonged squeeze could mean continued price volatility well beyond the next year.