• Storage facilities across the continent are not empty, but inventories are lower than policymakers would prefer, leaving markets more exposed to sudden cold spells or supply disruptions.
• Europe has reduced its reliance on Russian pipeline gas by importing more liquefied natural gas, particularly from the United States and the Middle East.
• The conflict and instability around key Gulf shipping routes could complicate LNG deliveries, raise transportation costs and intensify competition for cargoes in global markets.
• A mild winter would ease pressure, while prolonged cold could quickly draw down reserves and push prices higher for households and energy-intensive industries.
• Governments are preparing contingency measures, including demand reductions and emergency coordination, but officials face limited options if several risks materialize at once.
The region’s energy position is stronger than during the 2022 crisis, yet the margin for disruption has narrowed. Europe’s ability to navigate the coming months will depend on weather, global LNG availability and the security of maritime supply routes.